Madison Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar

Spring 2019 Seminars

All seminars are Tuesday at 12:05 pm in 4274 Chamberlin Hall except as noted. Refreshments will be served.

Short List
Join us for lunch during the summer on the Memorial Union Terrace at noon each Tuesday, starting May 7th!


Abstracts:

January 22, 2019

Order and simplicity in the 2018 elections


Barry Burden, UW Department of Political Science


To the casual observer, U.S. elections often appear to be the result of an unpredictable process driven by personalities and chance events. Although each election cycle has unique elements, I suggest that results are in fact highly predictable and reflect contextual variables in place well before election. The 2018 midterm elections in particular were the result of the well-established "cost of governing" phenomenon and structural biases in legislative districts in Wisconsin and the country.



January 29, 2019

Screening for “normal” genetic variants:  Using survey data to inform precision medicine

Marsha Mailick, Waisman Center

This talk will begin with the gene that causes a rare genetic disease, and consider how variants in this gene affect all of us.  The rare genetic disease is Fragile X Syndrome, which affects 1 in 5000 births and is caused by a mutation in the FMR1 gene on the X chromosome.  This gene is critically important for brain development and functioning throughout the lifespan.  Although it is rare, Fragile X Syndrome is the most common inherited cause of intellectual disability and also the most common genetic cause of autism.  Besides the “full mutation” that causes Fragile X Syndrome, variants in the FMR1 gene have been implicated in other health conditions.  These gene variants are familial, passed from one generation to the next, and thus there are family-wide implications for reproductive decision making and parenting.  However, until recently, the data were all derived from clinical patient groups, and thus, there is considerable ascertainment bias and uncertainty in generalizing to the full population.

For the past decade, we have been studying the full range of FMR1 gene variations in both clinical patient groups and through population survey data.  By cross-referencing data from both sources, we have been able to advance understanding of the impacts of what previously were believed to be normal variants of FMR1, but which actually have consequences for human health.  In this era of precision or personalized medicine, understanding the implications of such variants can inform the health care we receive, but only if such variants are screened for and understood.



February 12, 2019

Books build better brains: How promoting literacy is key to early brain and child development

Dipesh Navsaria, UW Department of Pediatrics

Dr Navsaria will discuss the critical importance of the first thousand days of life and the key role human relationships and interactions play in that time period, along with concepts of toxic stress and how early adversity leads to lifelong issues.  The importance of early literacy, along with key concepts about literacy development will be reviewed.  The structure and concept behind the Reach Out and Read program (which provides early literacy promotion) will be discussed in this context as a workable approach for busy primary-care medical settings.



February 26, 2019

Our changing National climate: Vulnerabilities to adaptations

John Young, Wisconsin State Climatology Office

The results of a national climate assessment are released at four-year intervals. They represent analyses of extensive weather and climate data. The first scientific analyses for the US and its specific climate regions was released in November 2017, and the most recent one addresses the impact of specific changes and attendant risks and adaptation challenges.


I will explain some highlights of the findings, with illustrations from trends in average seasonal  climate and extremes, regional differences, and considerations of future adaptation challenges. 




March 12, 2019

Big data ecology: Advancing the study of the natural world through citizen science             

Ben Zuckerberg, UW Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology
 
For more than a hundred years, ecology relied on carefully planned field studies focusing on a few species for a few years on a few parcels of land. These studies advanced numerous theories on how species interact with their environment, but the early 21st century ushered in a new era in the use of "big data" in ecology. Big data broadly describes large complex datasets arising from advancements in information technology and data acquisition. For ecologists, the most important stream of big data comes from citizen science programs that enlist the public in collecting observations of the natural world. Citizen scientists, equipped with both old tools (binoculars) and new technologies (smartphones), regularly collect data on where species occur across the world and are essential for documenting the ecological impacts of environmental change. I will present our recent work on the use of citizen science for studying impacts of urbanization and climate change on bird communities, and discuss the successes and challenges of big data ecology.  



March 26, 2019

A form for the feeling of being alive and kicking”: Chaos and structure in Joyce’s Finnegans Wake

Kevin Reilly, Former President UW System

Right from the start, Finnegans Wake subverts the usual order by beginning at the end and ending at the beginning.  Its very title is a spring-loaded word trick.  The Wake is perhaps the most complex and unread of all the great works of world literature—and a great joke book too!  We will read it out loud as Joyce intended, and hear how its fun chaos in language calls up profound speculation on life.



April 16, 2019

Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates

Kevin Burke, UW Department of Geography

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.



April 23, 2019

Energy, evolution and the origin of life?

Terry Allard, Office of Naval Research and NASA



April 30, 2019

Year-end celebration

Following the tradition of recent years in which we had a delightful discussion of where we have come and where we might go with the seminars, this last seminar of the semester will be devoted to a continuation of that discussion without any formal speaker. We will also discuss what we want to do during our informal weekly lunches on the Memorial Union Terrace which begin on May 7th. This celebration will include expanded refreshments, to which your own culinary contribution is welcome.