Fall 2016 Seminars

Brooke Bateman, UW Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology

Forecasting change in U.S. breeding bird distributions

Species are already coping with climate change by shifting their distributions. The rate at which these shifts are occurring is, however, much faster than faced by species in the past. In an uncertain future, we must be able to recognize and forecast how species distributions have and will continue to change. We used the species distribution modeling algorithm Maxent, occurrences, and annual climate and extreme weather covariates to predict breeding bird distributions for nearly 400 breeding bird species in the U.S. from 1950 through 2100, using 19 GCMs and two rcp scenarios. I will highlight how breeding distributions, in relation to annual climate and extreme weather covariates, have changed over the recent past and what change is forecasted for the future. Given the broad scale nature of climate change and widespread modification of the landscape with agriculture and development, we will need to coordinate and implement efforts at broad spatial scales and across many species.

Origin of life is an unsolved phenomenon. Charles Darwin’s mechanism assumes a universal ancestor, and elaborates the natural selection model to show how this ancestor could have evolved into all other organisms on earth, thus leaving the question open. While it has been known that natural selection mechanisms are able to clearly explain the “micro-evolution" of an organism into its varieties (for example, a crab into many different crab varieties), natural selection is unable to explain how an organism, such as a worm, could evolve into an entirely distinct organism such as a crab (termed "macro-evolution"). In this context, a theory formulated by Senapathy, that complex organisms could arise directly in prebiotic chemistry based on the easy origin of split genes in prebiotic random DNA, offers an explanation for macroevolution. This model shows that the genomes of complex organisms based on split genes are easy to arise from prebiotic chemistry, whereas the genomes of the apparently "simple" bacterial organisms could not. The implications of this model contrasting the conventional model will be discussed.

We are familiar with the prime numbers as those integers which cannot be factored into smaller integers, but if we consider systems of numbers larger than the integers, the primes may indeed factor in those larger systems. We discuss various questions mathematicians ask about how primes may factor in larger systems, talk about both classical results and current research on the topic, and give a sense of the kind of tools needed to tackle these questions.

December 6, 2016

2016 Polling in Nation and State: A scorecard

Charles Franklin, Law and Public Policy and Director of the Marquette University Law School Poll

How did the pre-election polls of 2016, at both national and state levels, perform? What did we learn about the dynamics of the campaign and the issues affecting public polling? How accurate were the polls and were some methods better than others?

December 13, 2016

Climate change and chaos: The impact on people through a human rights lens

Sumudu Atapattu, Director, Research Centers, UW Law School

Climate change is referred to as the most complex global issue facing humanity today. It has repercussions for not just the current generations but for generations to come. The current projections are that we are heading towards a temperature increase of 4 degrees Celsius although the international community has pledged to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius which is considered as a “safe” limit even though it could mean the total inundation for small island states. Even a global temperature increase of 2 degrees can have far reaching implications for human beings. A recent World Bank report suggests that a 4-degree increase could be catastrophic for people and the environment.

This presentation looks at the implications of climate change on human beings through a human rights lens. Climate change also raises profound justice issues as the impact on poor and vulnerable states and communities will be disproportionate to their greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change will undermine many of the rights protected under international human rights law and disproportionately affect poor, marginalized communities. The presentation also discusses the impact on small island states and their inhabitants who stand to lose everything including statehood. It will also discuss “climate refugees” and the potential impact of the movement of a large number of people on the world order.